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For almost eight years, the world has watched the Rohingya crisis fester, with no meaningful progress toward a solution. Nearly a million Rohingya refugees remain stranded in camps in Bangladesh, victims of a genocide that forced them from their homes in Myanmar’s Rakhine State in 2017. The humanitarian situation in Cox’s Bazar grows ever more desperate as aid dwindles, while conditions in Myanmar remain hostile and dangerous.
The international community has repeatedly promised to facilitate the repatriation of the Rohingya to their homeland. Yet every attempt has ended in failure. But why? And perhaps more importantly, what must change to avoid consigning the Rohingya to permanent exile?
The first repatriation agreement, struck in 2018 between Bangladesh and Myanmar’s military government, was touted as a breakthrough. But when buses were lined up to transport Rohingya families back across the border, not a single refugee stepped forward. Similar initiatives in 2019 and more recent pilot schemes have met the same fate. Refugees simply do not believe they will be safe if they return — and they are right.
The root of the failure lies in the flawed design of these repatriation efforts. Negotiations have been conducted almost exclusively between Dhaka and Naypyitaw, the seat of Myanmar’s junta. This is a fatal error. The junta may hold formal sovereignty but it has neither legitimacy nor effective control over much of Rakhine State, where the Rohingya once lived. The Arakan Army, an ethnic Rakhine force, now controls more than half of the state’s townships. Any plan that excludes them is detached from reality.
Equally, the national unity government, Myanmar’s parallel civilian administration, has been marginalized in these talks. Though it wields little military power, it represents the democratic aspirations of millions of Myanmar’s citizens and has been working to develop a federal system that could include minorities like the Rohingya. Ignoring the national unity government wastes an opportunity to enshrine Rohingya rights in a future Myanmar.
Most damaging of all, the Rohingya themselves have been sidelined. Refugee leaders were never invited to the negotiating table. Their demands are clear: recognition of their identity, restoration of citizenship rights, safety from persecution, and freedom of movement inside Myanmar. None of these guarantees have been forthcoming from the junta, the Arakan Army or even regional interlocutors. Asking the Rohingya to return without such assurances is tantamount to asking them to walk willingly into a trap.
Bangladesh has been caught in a difficult position. The country has shouldered the enormous burden of hosting almost a million refugees for nearly a decade. Its government has pushed for quick returns, hoping to relieve pressure on its fragile economy and restive local communities. But by prioritizing speed over substance, Dhaka has miscalculated. Each failed repatriation attempt has deepened mistrust among the refugees, who now suspect that their safety is being bargained away.
The Rohingya themselves have been sidelined. Refugee leaders were never invited to the negotiating table.
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
The international community has also failed the Rohingya. In 2022, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken formally recognized that the Myanmar military had committed genocide. But beyond rhetorical condemnation and piecemeal sanctions, Western policy has been inert and ineffective. The UN has largely confined itself to humanitarian work, leaving political solutions untouched. Meanwhile, China has expanded its influence in Rakhine through infrastructure projects and port access, showing little interest in securing justice for the Rohingya.
The result is paralysis. Camps in Bangladesh are turning into permanent settlements, aid is shrinking and a generation of stateless Rohingya youth is growing up without education, opportunity or hope. The dangers are obvious: frustration and despair can fuel radicalization, trafficking and instability that will spill across the region.
To break this cycle, three things must change.
First, the right interlocutors must be brought to the table. Any meaningful discussion about repatriation must include the Arakan Army, which now exercises de facto authority in much of northern Rakhine. The national unity government must also be engaged and pressed to formalize its recognition of the Rohingya in any future federal charter. Most importantly, the Rohingya themselves must be represented. Refugees need to help shape the conditions of their own return or they will never trust the process.
Second, repatriation must be anchored in rights and security, not political expediency. Citizenship for the Rohingya is not optional, it is the foundation of any durable solution. Without legal status, freedom of movement, and protection from violence, returns will be both unsafe and unsustainable. International donors must make clear that future aid to Myanmar’s political actors, whether the junta, the Arakan Army or the national unity government, will be conditional on their commitments to Rohingya rights.
Third, regional buy-in is essential. Bangladesh cannot carry this burden alone. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations, often derided for its ineffectiveness, must be pressed into action, while the Organization of Islamic Cooperation should provide real financial and diplomatic support. China, too, must be challenged to ensure its economic projects in Rakhine do not entrench the dispossession of the Rohingya.
The stakes are enormous. If the current trajectory continues, the Rohingya will become another protracted refugee population, languishing in limbo for generations like the Palestinians. Their cultural identity will erode in the camps and their plight will fade from the world’s conscience. This is not only a moral catastrophe but also a strategic risk for South and Southeast Asia.
Repatriation is still possible. But it requires a total rethink of the process. Continuing to negotiate with the junta while excluding the real power brokers on the ground and the Rohingya themselves is a recipe for further failure. The world must stop pretending that old formulas will somehow deliver new results.
If there is one lesson from the last eight years, it is this: there can be no solution for the Rohingya without the Rohingya. Until their rights, their voices, and their future are at the center of negotiations, the buses lined up in Cox’s Bazar will remain empty and an entire people will remain exiled from their homeland.
• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC.
X: @AzeemIbrahim